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Monday, May 17, 2021

Gujarat is likely to be hit by a hurricane, find out when and which city will be hit

Gujarat is likely to be hit by a hurricane, find out when and which city will be hit

Gujarat is likely to be hit by a hurricane, find out when and which city will be hit

This year's first hurricane is likely to hit the Kitch area of ​​Gujarat on May 20

Due to the storm, winds of 30 to 40 kmph are likely to erupt in Gujarat

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Tauktae is located 1159 km south-southeast of Karachi, Pakistan, and has moved northward at 17 km/h (9 knots) over the past 6 hours.


Satellite imagery shows a 26 km eye now forming as the system deepens and becomes more compact. The initial position is placed with high confidence based on the aforementioned eye feature and the low-level circulation in the composite weather radar loop from Goa, India.


Analysis shows environmental conditions strong poleward outflow, low wind shear (5-10 knots), and warm (31°C) sea surface temperature. Tauktae will continue on its current track over the next 36 hours along the western edge of a deep-layered subtropical ridge to the east.


The rapid intensification (RI) will continue through the next 12 to 24 hours, fueled by the favorable environmental conditions, reaching a peak intensity of 195 km/h (105 knots) by 24 hours. Afterward, it will move more northward and round the ridge axis before making landfall between Veraval and Mahuva, India, shortly after hours 36. Afterward, the system will begin to weaken due to land interaction.


After landfall, the cyclone will rapidly erode as it tracks across the rugged terrain, leading to dissipation by 3 days, possibly sooner. Forecast guidance has tightened in agreement with a gradual and even spread, now only 126 km at 36 hours and increases to a mere maximum of 357 km over the next 3 days.


Track confidence remains high up to 2 days, then low confidence afterward as the system will be overland. The JTWC track forecast is laid slightly to the right and a bit faster than the model consensus after 36 hours in anticipation of a more intense cyclone than what CONW suggests.


Maximum significant wave height is 9.4 meters (31 feet).


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